Italy vs France Prediction: Nations League Preview

Match preview

Italy welcome France to Milan in a Nations League Group 1 fixture. France have collected 10 points from four matches and can secure a place in the quarter-finals with a win; a draw would also be enough if Belgium fail to win. Italy sit second on seven points, three behind France and one ahead of Belgium.

The Azzurri arrive after two wins over Turkey, including a 3-1 victory, and a draw against France. The visitors have also beaten Belgium twice and Turkey once, although their latest win over Belgium came after a late surge in Paris.

Italy’s recent form and team situation

Roberto Mancini’s return to the Italy job began with a 2-0 defeat to Belgium. Changes to the side were followed by a 4-1 win in Turkey, a hard-earned draw with France and another success against Turkey, this time by 3-1.

Gianluigi Donnarumma made seven saves in the draw with France. Against Turkey, Gianluca Scamacca, Riccardo Calafiori and Pio Esposito scored; Esposito’s goal was his seventh in 13 senior appearances. These results have given Italy a positive platform, though their next two fixtures against France and Belgium offer a tougher test.

Italy are without Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Giacomo Raspadori and Moise Kean, while Gianluca Mancini has withdrawn with a muscular injury. Federico Gatti was called up as Mancini’s replacement. Nicolo Zaniolo has also withdrawn for personal reasons.

France’s form and squad picture

France have made a strong start under Zinedine Zidane, taking 10 points from four group matches. Their results include two victories over Belgium and one against Turkey, while they left their latest meeting with Belgium until late to turn the match around in Paris.

Michael Olise made an impact as a substitute in that game, which saw France score four times in 15 minutes. France’s squad includes Kylian Mbappe, the team’s all-time leading scorer, and Marcus Thuram is identified as his principal back-up in attack. Esteban Lepaul is injured.

Ibrahima Konate and Aurelien Tchouameni return after missing Zidane’s first camp. William Saliba, Maghnes Akliouche, Ousmane Dembele and Manu Kone are unavailable, while Pierre Kalulu has been ruled out with a hamstring injury. Dayot Upamecano is expected to return after serving a one-match suspension.

Head to head

The teams exchanged 3-1 away wins in the 2024-25 Nations League. France lead the head-to-head record 4-2 since Italy’s painful defeat on penalties in the 2006 World Cup final.

Those recent results show that both sides have been capable of winning away from home, but they do not settle the outlook for this meeting. France’s present position in the group gives the visitors a clear incentive, while Italy will be looking to maintain their place in the top two.

Expected line-ups

The supplied projected line-ups list Italy as: Donnarumma; Kayode, Scalvini, Bastoni, Calafiori; Barella, Tonali, Doumbia; Vergara, P. Esposito, S. Esposito.

France’s projected side is: Maignan; Gusto, Jacquet, Upamecano, Truffert; Cherki, Tchouameni, Rabiot; Olise, Doue, Mbappe. These are projected selections, not confirmed teams.

Tactical factors

Italy’s recent results have been encouraging, but the supplied assessment identifies defensive vulnerability against high-quality opposition. That concern could be significant against a France attack led by Mbappe, especially with the visitors having shown they can produce a decisive burst of goals.

Donnarumma’s performance in the previous meeting gives Italy a basis for confidence, while the potential pairing of the Esposito brothers offers the hosts an attacking option. France’s qualification position also provides context: a victory would book their place in the next phase, whereas Italy need points to protect their standing ahead of a subsequent trip to Brussels.

Italy vs France score prediction

Predicted score: Italy 1-2 France.

Italy have shown renewed promise under Mancini, and their recent results suggest they can make this a competitive contest. However, the available preview points to lingering defensive concerns against top opposition, while France have started strongly in the group and possess the attacking threat to exploit them.

A narrow away win is therefore the forecast, rather than a guaranteed outcome. Italy’s form and home setting leave room for resistance, but France’s stronger group record makes them the more likely side to take the points.