Prediction: North Macedonia vs Slovenia | Nations League

Match preview

North Macedonia host Slovenia in the final matchday of the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League group stage. The hosts have already been relegated to League C, while Slovenia enter the fixture second in League B Group 1 on eight points.

Slovenia sit one point ahead of Scotland and must match or better Scotland’s result against Switzerland to secure second place and a chance to pursue promotion to League A through the play-offs. That gives the visitors a clear objective; North Macedonia, meanwhile, will be looking to give their home supporters a much-needed win.

Form and match context

North Macedonia’s struggles extend well beyond this Nations League campaign. They have lost all five group matches and are without a win in their last 13 games across all competitions; their most recent victory was a 5-0 result against Liechtenstein in September 2025.

There was at least a positive attacking sign in their latest outing. Elmin Rastoder scored against Scotland to end an eight-match spell without a goal, but North Macedonia still lost 2-1. They have conceded 12 times in the group, six more than any other side in it.

Slovenia arrive with a stronger position in the table and won the reverse fixture 2-0, with Sandi Lovric and Aljosa Matko scoring. However, their away performances have not been flawless: all three of their conceded goals in the group came on the road, where they have also suffered their only defeat.

Head to head

The available recent head-to-head detail is the sides’ meeting earlier in this group, which Slovenia won 2-0. That result supports the visitors’ case, but it does not remove the need to deliver again, particularly given their away vulnerabilities.

Team news and projected line-ups

Rastoder is expected to lead North Macedonia’s attack after scoring against Scotland, with captain Enis Bardhi positioned in support. Eljif Elmas and Matej Gastarov are projected to partner in midfield.

Slovenia may retain a similar side to the one that drew 0-0 with group leaders Switzerland earlier in the November international break. Vanja Drkusic, Jaka Bijol and Zan Zaletel are expected to feature in the back three, while Aljosa Matko, Danijel Sturm and Zan Vipotnik are among the likely attacking options.

Projected North Macedonia XI: Dimitrievski; Ilievski, Mladenovski, Musliu, Alioski; Gastarov, Elmas; Churlinov, Bardhi, Doriev; Rastoder. Projected Slovenia XI: Oblak; Kuzmic, Drkusic, Bijol, Zaletel, Karnicnik; Matko, Zabukovnik, Cerin, Sturm; Vipotnik. These are projected line-ups; confirmed selections are not available.

Tactical factors

North Macedonia’s defensive record is a concern, with 12 goals conceded across five group fixtures. Their recent goal against Scotland could offer a lift, but they will need to turn that moment into a more sustained attacking threat against a Slovenia side that already kept them scoreless in the reverse meeting.

Slovenia have the stronger incentive and the more convincing recent evidence between these teams, yet their away record leaves an opening for the hosts. The visitors’ priority is likely to be a controlled performance that protects their position in the table, while North Macedonia must balance the desire to attack with the risk of exposing a defence that has struggled throughout the group.

North Macedonia vs Slovenia prediction

Predicted score: North Macedonia 0-2 Slovenia.

Slovenia’s place in the group standings and their 2-0 win in the reverse fixture make them the more persuasive choice. North Macedonia’s long winless run and heavy tally of goals conceded are further reasons to favour the visitors.

The hosts’ home setting and Rastoder’s recent goal may help them compete, but Slovenia have more at stake and a clearer route to securing the result they need. A second away victory over North Macedonia is a reasonable prediction, though the outcome remains uncertain.